Where Science (and Data) Fails Category Management

For decades, category management has thrived on the fertile ground of large-scale purchase behavior data.

Knowing who bought what, where, and when at a market and store level provides an inexhaustible stream of data for analysis. And analyze it we do—with gusto!

We’ve invested heavily in this data, and now AI tools promise to make decisions like assortment optimization as easy as clicking a button. But have we become so focused on dissecting individual trees that we’ve lost sight of the changing forest?

Are we missing the insights that truly fuel growth—the ultimate goal of our work? In a low-growth environment like CPG, overlooking this could be a costly mistake.

Here’s the issue: much of our analysis leans toward efficiency and looks backward.

Efficiency because sales data is strongest at revealing gaps or anomalies to fix. Backward-looking because, by definition, it examines the past. While history can be a guide, behavioral data often lacks the “why” and “so what” necessary for shaping forward-thinking strategies.

I admit I’m biased—I’ve developed a system to uncover the “why” behind shopper behavior. That’s because I’ve seen firsthand how often category strategies lack shopper-centric insights. In our rush to analyze past patterns, we risk losing the most critical perspective: the shopper’s.

Shoppers aren’t machines; they’re human beings. Their purchasing decisions are driven by habits, needs, missions, emotions, whims, and reactions—not data charts or historical trends. Understanding these dynamics is essential for identifying new growth opportunities.

Marketers have long known that their plans must address unmet consumer needs. Rich insights into ‘the consumer’ form the foundation of great marketing. Why should it be any different for category management?

After all, it’s the same human beings we’re dealing with—and your brand won’t make it into their basket unless they choose to pick it up or click “add to cart.”

My challenge to category managers is simple: cultivate an insatiable curiosity about your shoppers as people. Step away from the data sets and PowerPoint slides to observe, engage, and ask questions of the real humans who ultimately pay all our salaries. These are the people who will decide, at scale, whether to buy more—or less—of your category and brand.

At Shopper Intelligence, we’ve made it our mission to bring the shopper’s voice into these conversations with practical, fact-based tools. But whether you work with us or do your own research, the key is to relentlessly pursue the answers to the questions “why?” and “why not?”

To drive growth—getting shoppers to buy more, more often, or at a higher price—we must understand what motivates and inspires them. We need to know what influences their decisions, what they love or hate about the shopping experience, and what they wish was different. It’s about uncovering the causes behind the purchase patterns we track so diligently.

Here’s something else to consider: the advisors that retail buyers value most are those who can clearly articulate what their shoppers want.

They’re not looking for more charts about past sales—they’re inundated with those already. They want actionable insights, compelling stories, and solid plans that will move the needle by meeting the real needs of their shoppers.

In summary, category management isn’t just a science—it’s an art. It’s not just about analyzing purchase patterns—it’s about understanding people. And it’s not about the past—it’s about shaping the future.

The future is up to you.